Coffee production in Brazil should recover and reach more than 50 million bags

In August, the country exported 2.8 million bags of coffee, 10% more than in the previous month; favorable climate benefits harvest

After a difficult period, in which the crop was affected by prolonged droughts and frosts, coffee production is starting to show signs of recovery. In August, the country exported 2.8 million bags of coffee, 10% more than in July, according to Rabobank -- in 2021, there was a 26% reduction in harvest, according to the Brazilian Research and Development Consortium. Coffee Development (CBP&D/Café).

The expectation is that this month the production rate per metric ton of fertilizer will be 3.2 bags per ton, an increase of 1.9% compared to August, according to an unprecedented study by Rabobank. “Fertilizer prices, however, are likely to remain volatile due to uncertainties regarding natural gas,” says Guilherme Morya, an analyst at Rabobank.

This year, rural producers paid about 160% more, compared to 2021, for imported fertilizers, according to the National Agriculture Confederation (CNA). The rise in prices is mainly due to the war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russia, which leads to world production of the input. In 2021, Moscow exported more than 12.5 billion dollars 2021, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).

In this harvest, the weather is favoring the coffee harvest in Brazil. The absence of prolonged rains has been beneficial to the crop – sparse showers have caused a welcome bloom in the Alta Mogiana region of São Paulo and southern Minas, according to Rabobank. Coffee producers are expected to reap 50.3 million droughts this year, up from 47.7 million last year.